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Lead Stories: Wednesday, December 3, 2008

2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Men’s Marathon

Posted August 23rd, 2008 at 6:00 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Marathons, Olympics

Men’s Marathon
The Schedule: Sunday, Aug 24 (live on NBC, Saturday at 7:30 p.m. EDT)
The Americans: Ryan Hall, Dathan Ritzenhein, Brian Sell
The Contenders: Sammy Wanjiru (KEN), Martin Lel (KEN), Robert Cheruyiot (KEN), Mubarak Shami (QAT), Abderrahim Goumri (MAR), Jaouad Gharib (MAR), Tsegaye Kebede (ETH), Tsuyoshi Ogata (JPN)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Wanjiru, Lel, Goumri;
SI - Lel, Goumri, Kebede
The Story: If you look at the World Marathon Majors leader board, you would expect the race to come down to Lel, Cheruyiot and Goumri, or new half-marathon World Record holder Wanjiru. But that’s predicting the future based solely on what has happened in the past, and that’s an iffy proposition for the marathon.
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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Women’s Marathon

Posted August 16th, 2008 at 2:45 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Marathons, Olympics

Women’s Marathon

The Schedule: Sunday, Aug 17 (live on NBC, Saturday Aug 16 at 7:30 p.m. EDT)
The Americans: Deena Kastor, Magdalena Lewy-Boulet, Blake Russell
The Contenders: Zhou Chunxiu (CHN), Catherine Ndereba (KEN), Gete Wami (ETH), Paula Radcliffe (GBR), Zhu Xiaolin (CHN), Reiko Tosa (JPN)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Zhou, Ndereba, Wami;
SI - Zhou, Wami, Ndereba
The Story: Big recent news: Defending champ Noguchi is not running. Less big, less recent: Paula Radcliffe is in.

The universal favorite is China’s own Zhou Chunxiu, and personally I don’t see anyone else jumping out at me as someone else to pick. On the other hand, Ndereba beat her at last year’s Worlds where both had to deal with the same kind of heat and humidity nearly guaranteed in this year’s race. And her recent win in the NYC Half Marathon can either be viewed as proof of top condition or an energy-sapping effort too close to the big race. I just don’t know what to think.
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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Women’s 10,000 Meters

Posted August 14th, 2008 at 10:30 AM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics

Women’s 10,000 Meters

The Schedule: Friday, Aug 15
(live on NBC)
The Americans:
#5 Shalane Flanagan,
#8 Kara Goucher, Amy Begley
The Contenders: #1 Tirunesh Dibaba (ETH), #2 Lucy Kabuu Wangui (KEN), #10 Grace Kwamboka Momanyi (KEN) #12 Ejegayehu Dibaba (ETH), #13 Kim Smith (NZL), #16 Linet Chepkwemoi Masai (KEN), #21 Mestawet Tufa (ETH), Elvan Abeylegesse (TUR)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - T Dibaba, E Dibaba, Abeylegesse;
SI - Tufa, Jepleting, Kabuu
The Story: Six runners automatically get respect simply from their uniform: the trios from Ethiopia and Kenya. The northernmost of the two African neighbors has had significantly better results at international championships, winning five of the last nine major medals to Kenya’s none. One of those Ethiopians gets more respect than the other two combined, however: two-time World champ Dibaba, who also holds the 5k world record.
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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Men’s 10,000 Meters

Posted August 14th, 2008 at 9:00 AM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics

Men’s 10,000 Meters

The Schedule: Sunday, Aug 17
(live on NBC)
The Americans: #12 Abdi Abdirahman, #18 Galen Rupp, Jorge Torres
The Contenders: #1 Kenenisa Bekele (ETH), #3 Moses Ndiema Masai (KEN), #10 Sileshi Sihine (ETH), #18 Haile Gebrselassie (ETH), #19 Micah Kogo (KEN), #22 Martin Mathathi (KEN)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List,
2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Bekele, Sihine, Mathathi;
SI - Bekele, Sihine, Masai
The Story: This event is dominated by Kenya and Ethiopia, and the latter has been recently taking the best of the former. The Ethiopians have entered their three greatest runners of the last two decades: “The Emperor” Gebrselassie, his heir Bekele, and Sihine, who in five tries has never lost to anyone but these two in a championship 10k. A sweep would be surprising only in that Geb seems to have lost a little bit of the edge necessary for track racing.
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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Women’s Pole Vault

Posted August 13th, 2008 at 10:47 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics

Women’s Pole Vault
The Schedule: qualifying, Saturday Aug 16; final, Monday Aug 18
The Americans: #2 Jenn Stuczynski, #10 April Steiner Bennett, #23 Erica Bartolina
The Contenders: #1 Yelena Isinbayeva (RUS), #3 Monika Pyrek (POL), #4 Svetlana Feofanova (RUS), #5 Fabiana Murer (BRA)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Isinbayeva, Stuczynski, Pyrek; SI - Isinbayeva, Stuczynski, Pyrek
The Story: The unthinkable happened back in February: Isinbayeva lost. Quickly followed by a winning but quite ordinary outing, the umpteen-time World Record breaker seemed suddenly vulnerable.

It turned out to be momentary, and very much like Tiger Woods readjusting his swing. Once she got her new technique ironed out it she was even better than before, with more world records. Stuczynski is a tremendous vaulter who has been outclassed by none but the Russian, and could concievably win with a great day and some luck. The safe money for bronze is on Pyrek, but both Feofanova and Murer are real threats.

Surprise US Olympian Bartolina is mostly blind in one eye.

Note: Athletes’ rankings refer to TheFinalSprint.com’s World Points Standings, and medal picks come to us from Track & Field News and Sports Illustrated, respectively.

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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Women’s 800 Meters

Posted August 13th, 2008 at 10:32 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics

Women’s 800 Meters
The Schedule: heats, Friday Aug 15; semifinals, Saturday Aug 16; finals, Monday Aug 18
The Americans: #15 Hazel Clark, #19 Nicole Teter, Alice Schmidt
The Contenders: #1 Pamela Jelimo (KEN), #3 Janeth Jepkosgei (KEN), #5 Lucia Klocová (SVK), #13 Yuliya Krevsun (UKR)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Jelimo, Jepkosgei, Soboleva; SI - Jelimo, Jepkosgei, Krevsun
The Story: Meteoric doesn’t even begin to describe Jelimo’s rise to the top. An 18-year-old converted sprinter, she has run the 800 a grand total of seven times in her life; two of them were the fastest times recorded in the last decade. (That is, besides the one recorded by Yelena Soboleva, who was one of seven Russian women recently caught in a doping scandal.) Jelimo appears unbeatable.

Appearances can be deceiving, and Jepkosgei is thought to have a very real chance to win. She spent seven years toiling at the 800 before finally making a Kenyan national team, and last year she peaked brilliantly to win the World Championships. If Jelimo makes an error, Jepkosgei could make her pay for it.

Then, of course, there is the fact that the 800 is the most unpredictable track event. This year’s World Indoor championships is a perfect example: Australia’s Tamsyn Lewis, previously an unremarkable runner, found herself in the right place at the right time and won the gold medal. Since then, she’s gone right back to being unremarkable.

Note: Athletes’ rankings refer to TheFinalSprint.com’s World Points Standings, and medal picks come to us from Track & Field News and Sports Illustrated, respectively.

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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Men’s 800 Meters

Posted August 13th, 2008 at 10:26 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics

Men’s 800 Meters
The Schedule: heats, Wednesday Aug 20; semifinals, Thursday Aug 21; finals, Saturday Aug 23
The Americans: #8 Nick Symmonds, #18 Andrew Wheating, Christian Smith
The Contenders: #1 Abuber Kaki Khamis (SUD), #2 Mbulaeni Mulaudzi (RSA), #3 Yusuf Saad Kamel (BRN), #4 Abraham Chepkirwok (UGA), #5 Yuriy Borzakovskiy (RUS), #7 Alfred Kirwa Yego (KEN), #13 Wilfred Bungei (KEN), #16 Gary Reed (CAN), #24 Yeimer López (CUB)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Kaki Khamis, Lopez, Borzakovskiy; SI - Mulaudzi, Bungei, Kaki Khamis
The Story: I have listed more contenders than could actually make the final. The 800 is such an unpredictable event that anyone who makes the final in a race like this has a shot. For proof, look no further than Christian Smith, the third US Olympian who barely even qualified for the Trials but still got it done when it mattered. You can make a good argument for any of nine athletes getting a medal. Borzakovskiy has done it before and is rounding into top shape, Bungei was the Kenyan trials champ which automatically earns credibility, Yego and Reed were a close first and second at last year’s Worlds (and Reed recently set a new Canadian Record), Mulaudzi has been tremendously consistent as has Kamel, Chepkirwok has two major World Tour victories, López has run a couple of very fast times without being pressed, and Symmonds is showing increasing racing skill. If the race goes out hard it favors Borzakovskiy and Symmonds, but otherwise toss ‘em in a hat and pick two.

The one medal that appears not to be up for grabs is gold. 19-year-old Sudanese wonderkind Khamis has taken the world by storm and blown away the competition in both invitational and championship races. I, and most other observers, find it hard to imagine him getting beat.

Note: Athletes’ rankings refer to TheFinalSprint.com’s World Points Standings, and medal picks come to us from Track & Field News and Sports Illustrated, respectively.

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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Women’s 400 Meters

Posted August 13th, 2008 at 10:24 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics

Women’s 400 Meters
The Schedule: heats, Saturday Aug 16; semifinals, Sunday Aug 17; finals, Tuesday Aug 19
The Americans: #1 Sanya Richards, #6 Mary Wineberg, DeeDee Trotter
The Contenders: #3 Novlene Williams (JAM), #4 Shericka Williams (JAM), #5 Ana Kapachinskaia (RUS), #7 Christine Ohuruogu (GBR)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Richards, Ohuruogu, Williams; SI - Richards, Williams, Whyte
The Story: Last year’s shocker was Richards faltering to fourth at the USA Championships and not making the Worlds team. It was revealed that she suffers from Behcet’s Syndrome, a strange and incurable disease rare in the US but common in the Middle East and Asia. At that time, she was hurting badly, but medication has brought it under control.

And so, she is now back to her tough self. Only one woman in the world can beat her when she’s healthy, and that woman–Allyson Felix–had to choose between this event and her specialty, the 200. Save another disease flareup, feel safe to bet the mortgage on this one. The race will be for second.

That race has many contenders and should be a fantastic one. Any of a half a dozen athletes figure to be in the mix. So far this year Kapachinskaia and Novlene Williams have been the most impressive, but Ohurougu and Nicola Sanders peaked brilliantly last year to take the first two spots at the Worlds and cannot be discounted. Wineberg is another year stronger and wiser, as is Shericka Williams. Russian champ Yulia Guschina has only that one 400 race to hang her hat on, but any Russian women’s champ has to be respected (and she’s run very well at the 200). I would say every finalist has a realistic shot at a medal.

Note: Athletes’ rankings refer to TheFinalSprint.com’s World Points Standings, and medal picks come to us from Track & Field News and Sports Illustrated, respectively.

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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Men’s 1500 Meters

Posted August 13th, 2008 at 10:22 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics

Men’s 1500 Meters
The Schedule: heats, Friday Aug 15; semifinals, Sunday Aug 17; finals, Tuesday Aug 19
The Americans: #3 Bernard Lagat, #14 Lopez Lomong, #19 Leonel Manzano
The Contenders: #1 Augustine Choge (KEN) , #5 Abdalaati Iguider (MAR), #6 Asbel Kiprop (KEN), #7 Deresse Mekkonen (ETH), Rashid Ramzi (BRN)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Lagat, Ramzi, Choge; SI - Choge, Lagat, Iguider
The Story: US hopes are strong here, led by double World champ Lagat and US opening ceremonies flag-bearer Lomong. All three are smart and tough and have the kind of tactical abilities that are well rewarded at the Olympic Games. The USA hasn’t had three finalists in this event since 1936, and it could happen again. Lagat in particular is a favorite, being a long-time top runner and breaking through at last year’s Worlds, but his recent loss in London shows that slow tactical affairs can leave even the best of them in the wrong place at the wrong time.

His main competition is expected to be Augustine Choge, the Kenyan trials champion. In previous years he had concentrated on the 3k, 5k and cross country, so three rounds of running is unlikely to take much out of him. On the other hand, his lone championship 1500 experience was the ‘05 Worlds, where he failed to advance out of the heats.

More likely to push Lagat is Ramzi. He has done basically nothing of note this year, but he hadn’t in 2005 when he swept the World Championships 1500 and 800, or last year when he won World silver behind Lagat. Also in the shadows lies Mekonnen, a young Ethiopian who took gold at the World Indoor championships.

Note: Athletes’ rankings refer to TheFinalSprint.com’s World Points Standings, and medal picks come to us from Track & Field News and Sports Illustrated, respectively.

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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Men’s 110 Meter Hurdles

Posted August 13th, 2008 at 5:30 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics

110 Meter Hurdles

The Schedule: heats, Monday Aug 18; quarterfinals, Tuesday Aug 19; semifinals, Wed Aug 20; finals, Thursday Aug 21
The Americans: #1 David Oliver, #3 Terrence Trammell, #9 David Payne
The Contenders: #2 Dayron Robles (CUB), #13 Xiang Liu (CHN)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Robles, Xiang, Oliver;
SI - Robles, Xiang, Trammell
The Story: This event is stacked. In 2008 Dayron Robles set the World Record, ran three of the seven fastest times ever, lost just once (by .01 seconds), and is only a sidelight in a feature-length Sports Illustrated article on his rival. That rival, Liu Xiang, has the weight of 1.3 billion Chinese squarely on his wide shoulders. And American American Oliver has been running so well that he’s challenging for the overall World Points Standings lead when all events are combined. Forget the 100, 1500, decathlon or marathon: this is the race of the 2008 Olympics, and if Xiang wins the country will erupt (and scare its totalitarian government to death).
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