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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Women’s Marathon

Posted August 16th, 2008 at 2:45 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Marathons, Olympics

Women’s Marathon

The Schedule: Sunday, Aug 17 (live on NBC, Saturday Aug 16 at 7:30 p.m. EDT)
The Americans: Deena Kastor, Magdalena Lewy-Boulet, Blake Russell
The Contenders: Zhou Chunxiu (CHN), Catherine Ndereba (KEN), Gete Wami (ETH), Paula Radcliffe (GBR), Zhu Xiaolin (CHN), Reiko Tosa (JPN)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - Zhou, Ndereba, Wami;
SI - Zhou, Wami, Ndereba
The Story: Big recent news: Defending champ Noguchi is not running. Less big, less recent: Paula Radcliffe is in.

The universal favorite is China’s own Zhou Chunxiu, and personally I don’t see anyone else jumping out at me as someone else to pick. On the other hand, Ndereba beat her at last year’s Worlds where both had to deal with the same kind of heat and humidity nearly guaranteed in this year’s race. And her recent win in the NYC Half Marathon can either be viewed as proof of top condition or an energy-sapping effort too close to the big race. I just don’t know what to think.

How about Radcliffe? Under normal circumstances, I’d say no way. Throughout her career, she has shown an inability to allow any runner to be ahead of her at any time, and in hot conditions with dozens of great runners (some talented but highly inexperienced) such impatience is not rewarded. But her professed worries about her injury and conditioning might actually turn the “I can’t be behind” switch in her brain to the off position, giving her a chance to medal if not win. But if she goes right to the front it’s over.

Kastor is the only American with any kind of chance, and I don’t think she has much of one.

Note: Athletes’ rankings refer to TheFinalSprint.com’s World Points Standings, and medal picks come to us from Track & Field News and Sports Illustrated, respectively.