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2008 Beijing Olympic Preview: Men’s 5000 Meters

Posted August 12th, 2008 at 2:00 PM by Jesse Squire

Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics

Men’s 5000 Meters
The Schedule: heats, Wednesday Aug 20; finals, Saturday, Aug 23
The Americans:
#5 Bernard Lagat, Matt Tegenkamp, Ian Dobson
The Contenders: #1 Edwin Cheruyuiot Soi (KEN), #2 Tariku Bekele (ETH), #4 Kenenisa Bekele (ETH), #11 Craig Mottram (AUS), #13 Eliud Kipchoge (KEN), #14 Abraham Cherkos Feleke (ETH)
The Stats: Records, 2008 List, 2007 Worlds, 2004 Olympics
The Medal Picks: T&FN - K Bekele, Lagat, Kipchoge;
SI - Soi, T Bekele, Kipchoge
The Story: Who wins and who medals will depend very much on how the race plays out. A slow pace favors Lagat, who has far and away the best finishing speed, but it’s unlikely that all the other finalists will want to hand the race to him like they did last year in Osaka. A hard pace from the gun reverses that advantage/disadvantage situation but is even less likely. More expected is gamesmanship, surging, and a real race taking shape in the last eight or so laps.

Thus it is useful to look at who has fared the best in similarly unrabbited 5k affairs rather than the World Tour’s races which are often little more than high-speed time trials. However, those kind of paced 3k races tell us a bit as well.

So long as it does not come down to a kick of one lap or less, and he’s not worn out from the 10k, the clear favorite is Kenenisa Bekele, as those are the only circumstances under which he’s been beatable. Tariku Bekele is perceived to have poor finishing speed but won the World Indoor title at 3k this year. Third Ethiopian Feleke is very young and inexperienced.

Kenyan trials champ Soi has shown some good form, but compatriot Kipchoge has come through consistently in big championship races. At last year’s Worlds he was just edged out by Lagat; he was third in Athens behind El Guerrouja and Bekele, and outsprinted the Morroccan world-record holder the year before for the Worlds gold.

Besides Lagat, the only other athlete figuring into this Kenya-Ethiopia war is “Buster” Mottram. Seemingly perfectly made for 3000 meters, if the pace turns hot with six or seven laps to go he’ll be in good shape.