2008 Track & Field
Previews & Predictions:
Women’s Middle-Distance
Posted January 25th, 2008 at 5:25 PM by Jimmie R. Markham
Section: News & Results, Track & Field, Olympics
Maria Mutola recently announced that she will retire at the end of the 2008 season. That’s a shame because she has been the ambassador of women’s 800m running ever since she broke on the world-class middle-distance running scene in 1991 with a time of 1:57.63. Since then she’s run between 1:55.19 and 1:58.98 a staggering 108 times. The only other woman to come even close to running that many world-class times in the 800m has been the great Cuban runner Ana Quirot, who ran between 1:54.44 and 1:58.95 a total of 72 times between 1986 and 1997. The 800m event will truly be diminished when Mutola retires.
Women’s middle-distance running has been stagnant for a long time. Look at the charts that show the fastest times run each year in the 800m and 1500m since 2000 compared to the fastest times of the three previous decades. The charts reveal two things:
1) Doping was obviously widespread in the 70s, 80s, and 90s.
2) Since doping regulations and dope testing have tightened in the past decade, middle-distance times have slowed and have plateaued in recent years. That can’t be a coincidence.
Fact: Of the 50 fastest times ever run in the 800 meter event, only 1 of them has been run in this decade.
Fact: Of the 50 fastest times ever run in the Mile Run, only 8 of them have been run in this decade.
Fact: Of the 50 fastest times ever run in the 1500 meter event, only 9 of them have been run in this decade.
The 3000m and 3000m Steeplechase tell a surprisingly different story:
Fact: Of the 50 fastest times ever run in the 3000m flat, almost half (23) of them have been run in this decade.
Fact: Of the 50 fastest times ever run in the 3000 meter Steeplechase, all 50 of them have been run in this decade.
What else do these statistics mean? Well, for one thing, the 3000m Steeplechase is a brand new event for women, so they are just now figuring out how to run it. Also, the Cold War doping programs weren’t concerned with the women’s steeplechase. As for the 3000m flat, perhaps the statistics show that the advantages of hard-core steroids are diminished they longer the race.
Only a handful of women broke 1:58 barrier for the 800m in 2007:
Janet Jepkosgei (KEN) 1:56.04
Hasna Benhassi (MAR) 1:56.17
Maria Mutola (MOZ) 1:56.98
Mayte MartÃnez (ESP) 1:57.62
Yuliya Krevsun (UKR) 1:57.63
Another dozen or so women attained the next tier (sub 1:59) in 2007. Among them, the Russians and women from former Soviet Bloc countries (Svetlana Usovich (BLR), Russians Olga Kotlyarova and Svetlana Cherkasova and Brigitta Langerholc of Slovenia) led the pack. Surprisingly, other than Jepkosgei and Faith Macharia earlier this decade, no Kenyans have been prominent in the 800m. Look for that to change in 2008. On the men’s side, Kenyans abound, so the Kenyan women are bound to catch up. The talent in the Rift Valley cannot be denied. The only thing that could hinder the Kenyans this year is the continued violence in their country. Unless the political crisis comes to an end, it’s got to take a physical and psychological toll on the Kenyan runners. I hope the good people of this great nation can work out their problems soon.
So who will top the 800m runners in 2008? Look for Mutola to have her last hurrah in Beijing. A gold medal for her in her final race would be poetic justice. Jepkosgei will be hard to beat, though.
In the 1500m, only two women broke the 4:00 barrier in 2007. Yelena Soboleva (RUS) ran a 3:58.30 and Maryam Yusuf Jamal (BRN) ran a 3:58.75. Between the two of them, they had 6 of the 10 fastest times last year. Jamal and Soboleva went one/two in Osaka with Iryna Lishchynska (UKR) rounding out the top 3. That is certain to change in 2008. Who will step up, though? A handful of Russians? The Kenyans? Maybe the Americans? No American has cracked the 4:00 barrier since 2002 when Suzy Favor Hamilton did it. The Americans are way overdue on the female side. Erin Donohue, Lauren Fleshman, Treniere Clement, Shalane Flanagan and Shayne Culpepper all ran in the 4:05 range last year. Nine or 10 others, including Kara Goucher and Sara Hall, ran under 4:11. Goucher told me she needs to run under 4:00 this year to be competitive in the 10,000m in Beijing. My bet is that she’ll do it. Surely the 1500m specialists won’t let her run away with the 1500m this year, too. That means at least a few other Americans will be under 4:00 in 2008.
Once we get past the 1500m and into the 3000m, flat and steeple, we’re getting into African territory. The six fastest 3000m runners in 2007 were all from either Ethiopia, Kenya or Morocco. Who do you think rounded out the top 10, though? Three Americans (Goucher, Jen Rhines, Flanagan) and a Kiwi (Kim Smith). Look for the Americans to continue to narrow the gap in 2008. The world has broken through psychologically and are no longer content to give middle-distance and long-distance races away to the Africans.
The 3000m Steeplechase belongs to the Russians and the Kenyans. Again, the Americans are showing us something in the event. I’m predicting that the women’s 3000m Steeplechase will be the most exciting event in the U.S. Olympic Track & Field Trials. Lisa Galaviz, Briana Shook, Jenny Barringer, Anna Willard, Ann Gaffigan, Carrie Messner, Elizabeth Jackson and Lindsey Anderson have all broken 9:40 and all have done so between 2004 and 2007. It may take an American record to win (Lisa Galaviz holds that record with a 9:28.75).
Beyond that, they’ve still got a large gap to overcome in order to catch the Russians. The world record is Russian Gulnara Samitova-Galkina’s 9:01.59. Yekaterina Volkova ran a 9:06.57 in 2007 to win the gold medal in Osaka. Tatyana Petrova wasn’t too far behind, taking silver in 9:09.19. Then there’s Gulnara Samitova-Galkina (9:11.68) and Kenyan Eunice Jepkorir (9:14.52). On the world stage, look for the Russians to continue their domination, but look for the Americans to continue to narrow that gap. It should be an exciting year for women’s middle distance running.
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Tags: 1500m, 3000m, 3000m steeplechase, 800m, Ana Quirot, Ann Gaffigan, Anna Willard, Briana Shook, Brigitta Langerholc , Carrie Messner, Elizabeth Jackson, Erin Donohue, eunice jepkorir, Faith Macharia Yelena Soboleva, gulnara samitova galkina, Hasna Benhassi, Janet Jepkosgei, Jen Rhines, Jenny Barringer, Kara Goucher, Kim Smith, lauren fleshman, Lindsey Anderson, Lisa Galaviz, Maria Mutola, Maryam Yusuf Jamal, Mayte MartÃnez, middle distance, Olga Kotlyarova, olympics, sara hall, Shalane Flanagan, Shayne Culpepper, Suzy Favor Hamilton, Svetlana Cherkasova, Svetlana Usovich, tatyana petrova, track and field, treniere clement, yekaterina volkova, Yuliya Krevsun
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