2008 Previews & Predictions: Women’s Marathon
Posted January 24th, 2008 at 12:30 PM by Jared Markowitz
Section: News & Results, Marathons, Olympics
The marathon promises to be one of the marquee events in women’s track and field in 2008. Among the highlights will be an epic showdown in London, a thrilling U.S. Olympic Trials, and Paula Radcliffe’s last chance at Olympic glory in Beijing. These and a few other huge races should provide many memorable moments and will define many careers. I will again try to make predictions based on as much hearsay, personal bias, and circumstantial data as I can gather.
The first big event on the 2008 women’s marathon calendar is the Flora London Marathon, which will be held on April 13. This race feature’s several of the world’s top female marathoners including World Record holder Radcliffe, World Marathon Majors Champ Gete Wami, Dubai Marathon champ Berhane Adere, Svetlana Zakharova, Constantina Tomescu-Dita, and Benita Johnson.
Radcliffe should be the favorite, based off her past accolades and her inspired victory over Wami in a sprint finish in New York this past fall. That race represented a stunning return to form for Radcliffe, who just 10 prior gave birth to her daughter Isla. London will not be an easy race for Paula by any stretch of the imagination, but in the end I believe that Isla’s mum will hold off Wami once more and add to her untarnished London legacy.
Just a week after the London Marathon is the U.S. Olympic Trials- Women’s Marathon …
A Brief Side Note: Does anyone understand why we are forced to call it this? I mean there’s the U.S. Olympic Trials- Men’s Marathon, the U.S. Olympic Trials- Track and Field, etc. and all of them seem awkwardly worded. If I were an English major I would protest this by coming up with a really creative name like the Women’s U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials or something else comparably edgy. In fact, I think I will do that.
The Trials will be held in Boston in conjunction with the Boston Marathon and should be a phenomenal event. It will be run on a loop course in downtown Beantown that should be fantastic for spectators. Weather could be a factor, but the runners should be at least somewhat sheltered by the tall buildings surrounding much of the course.
The clear favorite will be Deena Kastor, the American record holder and defending Olympic bronze medalist. Deena’s PR of 2:19:36 is significantly faster than anyone in else in the field, and barring catastrophe she should book a ticket to Beijing.
There are many viable contenders for the remaining two spots. Foremost among them are Marla Runyan, Elva Dryer, Kate O’Neill, and Colleen De Reuck.
Runyan has run 2:27:10 (in 2002) and is an inspirational story as she has overcome being legally blind to become one of America’s top runners. De Reuck won these trials four years ago but at 43 is possibly pushing the end of her career. Dryer ran a strong 2:31:48 at Chicago in 2006 and should be in the mix. Finally, marathon newcomer and New England native Kate O’Neill should be in contention based on her 2:36:15 in the brutal heat of Chicago this past fall. Although there are too many variables and many other women who could step up, I’m going to go with the “chalk” pick of Kastor, O’Neill, and Dryer in that order. I would also love to see BAA member and inspirational mom Emily LeVan make the team, and with her 2:37:01 PR this is a possibility.
Unfortunately I do not know which elite runners will be at this year’s Boston Marathon, but I’m still going to predict that Latvia’s Jelena Prokopcuka will win. Prokopcuka finished a close second in this race last year to Lidiya Grigoryeva, but I believe that Prokopcuka was the strongest runner as she took the wind for her competitors for a large part of the race. Jelena (assuming she’s in the race) won’t make the same mistake again and hopefully there won’t be gale force winds on Commonwealth Avenue this time.
All of the races mentioned above will serve as an exciting buildup to this year’s main event, the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. This race will be held in late August and the athletes will have to deal with the pressure, heat, and the poor air conditions of the Chinese capital. The race will be billed as Paula’s last run at Olympic gold, and deservedly so. Radcliffe has won 7 of the 8 marathons she has entered, with the only blemish being the 2004 Olympic marathon in Athens where she did not finish.
She will again have to deal with world-class competition and huge expectations. 
Reigning Olympic champion Mizuki Noguchi will return to defend her title, and Wami, Catherine Ndereba, Prokopcuka, Kastor, Berhane Adere and a cast of other worthy contenders will also likely be in the race. Anything can happen in a marathon, but the harsh conditions and distinguished field combine to make this one of the most unpredictable races of the year.
I will rely on my personal admiration for Radcliffe (the first woman to ever beat me in a race and one of the few record-breaking athletes I don’t suspect of drugs) to pencil her in for gold. I believe Wami and Noguchi will fill out the podium in that order with Prokopcuka also running strong. Kastor should also finish in the top 10, and I sincerely hope she surprises again as she did in 2004.
The rest of 2008 will be falling action after The Games. The ING New York Marathon has done a phenomenal job of putting together strong women’s fields in recent years and should once again be the highlight of the fall racing season. Berlin and Chicago should also see some fierce competition and fast times.
Although I don’t believe Radcliffe’s world record of 2:15:25 will be challenged any time soon, these races should provide a fitting conclusion to an incredible year of women’s marathons.
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Tags: beijing olympics, benita johnson, Berhane Adere, berlin marathon, boston marathon, boston2008, boston2008 news, Catherine Ndereba, colleen de reuck, deena kastor, Elva Dryer, emily levan, Gete Wami, ING New York City Marathon, Jelena Prokopcuka, kate oneil, lasalle bank chicago marathon, Lidiya Grigoryeva, London Marathon, london2008, london2008news, marla runyan, Mizuki Noguchi, olympic marathon, paula radcliffe, svetlana zakharova, u.s. olympic womens marathon trials
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