2008 Previews & Predictions: Men’s Marathon
Posted January 24th, 2008 at 1:38 PM by Jared Markowitz
Section: News & Results, Marathons, Olympics
The marathon promises to be one of the most exciting events in the track and field world this coming year. From marquee matchups to record attempts, the Olympic Games to another Marathon Major Contest, 2008 should be another fantastic year for this historic distance. In the following paragraphs I will outline the cast of characters who will seek to etch their names in the history books in 2008. I will also offer one journalist’s thoughts on what could happen in the big races. It has been said that marathons are tremendously difficult to forecast, but rest assured that this former mediocre DIII runner has all the answers.
The first major (at least in the financial sense) marathon of 2008 was the Standard Chartered Dubai Marathon, held this past Sunday. The big news from this race was the world record attempt by Ethiopian legend Haile Gebrselassie. Fresh off his 2:04:26 world record in Berlin this past fall, “The Emperor” struck back with a 2:04:52, the second fastest time ever. Gebrselassie’s only fault was a blistering first half that left him a bit overextended and unable to hang on for the record. His time did serve notice, in case anyone wasn’t already convinced, that Geb will be a force to be reckoned with in this Olympic year as long as he can overcome the interaction of Beijing pollution and his severe allergies.
The next big event on the 2008 marathon calendar is the clash of titans also known as the Flora London Marathon. With seemingly endless resources at its disposal, London will once again gather a majority of the world’s finest men’s marathoners. Already committed to run London are huge names such as Paul Tergat, Richard Limo, Emmanuel Mutai, Samuel Wanjiru, Martin Lel, Hendrick Ramaala, Jaouad Gharib, Stefano Baldini, Yonas Kifle, Abderrahim Goumri, Ryan Hall, Luke Kibet, Aleksey Sokolov, and Meb Keflezighi.
Tergat is a former world record holder, Lel is the defending London and New York champ, Baldini is the Olympic champ, Kibet is the world champ, Wanjiru is the half marathon world record holder, and of course Hall is the rising American star.
There are a ton of big names and anything could happen, but I see another victory for Lel. He has the mental edge as he has owned this race in recent years and has already proven himself in showdowns like this one. He will have to battle the likes of Wanjiru and Hall, two young guns seeking to make statements in the buildup to Beijing. I see Lel, Wanjiru, and Hall on the podium with Goumri and Mutai in close pursuit.
The winning time (weather allowing) will be sub-2:06, with five or more men under 2:08. Note that I have not predicted that Hall will make another quantum leap in this race, but at this point I would not be surprised (actually I would be thrilled) to see it happen. The kid’s got talent, obviously, but this race is his first as an established favorite and he may take his lumps. I’m more optimistic about his chances in Beijing (see below).
The famed Boston Marathon will be the final major marathon in the spring season and will be held 8 days after London. I know very little about the elite field in this race, but I’m going to go ahead and assume that Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot will win as his victory march down Boylston is practically a Patriot’s Day tradition. His winning time will be somewhere between 2:06 and 2:20 depending on the wildly variable weather we enjoy in this lovely city.
Perhaps the biggest event on the 2008 marathon calendar is the Olympic Marathon, which will be held in Beijing on August 24. This race will be affected by both the expected warm temperatures and the poor air quality of the Chinese capital. While it is impossible to predict the outcome entirely as the field has not been announced, there are several interesting subplots that should be important. First of all, we know that (unless concerns about air quality deter him) Gebrselassie will run. A win in this race would put the finishing touches on what has to be considered one of the finest running careers ever.
This will not be an easy race for Geb, however. All of his good marathons to this point have been essentially time trials, and he has not proven himself against formidable competition in tough conditions. He is perhaps the greatest track distance runner ever, but this race will not resemble a track meet. Nonetheless I believe that Geb’s experience and tremendous courage are enough to make him the favorite.
Another intriguing competitor is Hall, who has shown enormous potential at the longer distances and seems to do something special every time out. His performance at the U.S. Olympic Trials was truly transcendent; a huge negative split while giving away celebration time on a rugged course is certainly noteworthy. He will be a factor in Beijing, particularly after earning his stripes in London and since the track runners will be slowed somewhat by the expected harsh conditions. I see a medal in Hall’s future, although it probably will not be gold this time out.
Geb and Hall will likely be tested by defending champ Baldini, South African Ramaala, and strong contingents from Kenya, Brazil, and Japan. The Kenyan contingent should be particularly formidable, with names such as Lel, Cheruiyot, Wanjiru, Tergat, Mutai, Kibet, Stephen Kiagora, and Hillary Maiyo all hoping to make the team. Fortunately for the rest of the field, only three can be chosen so the race might not be quite as deep as London. Sadly the recent violence in Kenya may affect the selection process and preparation of these athletes, although we can still hope that will not be the case.
The other Americans who have qualified for the Olympic marathon are Dathan Ritzenhein and Brian Sell, and both have the potential to finish near the top 10. Sell will definitely run smart, and the difficult conditions should fit in nicely with his blue collar reputation. I actually doubt that Ritz will toe the line, as he has an excellent shot at qualifying in the 10,000m and might opt for one more Olympic shot at that distance. If he doesn’t run, former world record holder Khalid Khannouchi would run in his place and should be able to scratch out a top 20 position.
The course of the fall marathon season will likely be determined by the results of London and Beijing. The biggest races will be in Berlin, Chicago, and New York. While it is impossible to predict the victors without knowing the start lists, one can safely say that the main contenders will come from those who have been frustrated by The Games, those who are collecting appearance fees after excelling in The Games, and world-class Kenyans who due to their national strength did not compete in The Games. There should once again be many strong performances as we are in a golden era of marathon running, and folks like Geb and Wanjiru might take another shot at the World Record. Regardless of how the fall shakes down, it will provide an exciting end to a glorious year of marathons.
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Tags: Abderrahim Goumri, aleksey sokolov, berlin2008, berlin2008news, boston2008, boston2008news, Brian Sell, chicago2008, chicago2008news, Dathan Ritzenhein, Emmanuel Mutai, haile gebrselassie, Hendrick Ramaala, Hillary Maiyo, Jaouad Gharib, london2008, london2008news, luke kibet, marathon, Martin Lel, Meb Keflezighi, mens marathon, newyork2008, newyork2008news, olympicmarathon2008, olympicmarathon2008news, olympics, paul tergat, prediction, preview, Richard Limo, Ryan Hall, Samuel Wanjiru, Stefano Baldini, stephen kiagora, yonas kifle
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The Final Sprint
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January 24th, 2008 at 1:34 pmI actually don’t think Geb will run the Olympic marathon. I think if he won it he would basically solidify his position as the greatest ever. But I get the impression he still thinks he can compete in the 10k, he’s more concerned with health and longevity than Olympic gold, and that conditions in China will prove to be worse than we expect right now.
That said, I hope he runs it. Imagine he and Tergat battling it out, with Tergat finally beating him like Alain Mimoun finally beat Zatopek in 1956. That would be cool for Tergat.
If you’re fans of Gebrselassie, check out my fan lens at http://www.squidoo.com/haile_gebrselassie
January 24th, 2008 at 10:49 pm