The Law of Attrition in Masters Track
Posted October 20th, 2007 at 8:30 AM by Jimson Lee
Section: News & Results, SoundOFF, Columns, Masters
I recently competed at the 2007 World Masters Athletics championships in Riccione, Italy, Europe’s most popular beach resort just south of Rimini by the Adriatic Sea. Masters track is separated by gender and 5 year age groups, starting from 35-39 all the way up to 100-104 and even a 105+ category!
Someone once said that “masters track records look soft from a distance.” It would not be unusual to feel that the records in the age group just ahead of one’s own are within one’s grasp. When I was 35, I felt I was capable of breaking the M40 Canadian National record for 400 meters. A check of the facts would have told me otherwise.
Let’s look at some statistics to see why this is usually the case. I say usually because some rare elite athletes like 40-year-old Troy Douglas of the Netherlands and 47-year-old Merlene Ottey of Slovenia (formerly of Jamaica) still compete at the elite level. Ex-Olympian hurdler Willie Gault has made a comeback in masters track, setting a world record at age 46 last year with a time of 10.72 seconds for the M45 100m dash.
In any case, let’s take a look at world records as these are the times used to calculate age grade tables:
The following table shows the average time differences between world record performances for 5 year age groups from M40 – M65 (I am using a sample pool of 30 years) in the sprint events:
- 100m = 0.42 seconds
- 200m = 0.96 seconds
- 400m = 1.71 seconds
Here’s a similar look at the American records between M40 – M65 age groups (a smaller sample pool):
- 100m = 0.36 seconds
- 200m = 0.78 seconds
- 400m = 1.42 seconds
How do these statistics compare to the latest WMA 2007 competition?
I checked the results of the last qualifier to advance to the semi-finals in the 100m heats for each age group from M40-M65:
- M40 100m heats 11.73
- M45 100m heats 12.27
- M50 100m heats 12.45 (though 12.55 & 12.86 qualified on “Q” or place)
- M55 100m heats 13.06
- M60 100m heats 13.62
- M65 100m heats 14.15
This means that there was a 0.38 second attrition rate between each of the M40-M65 age groups for the 100m dash.
If you really want to get depressed, you can look at this at an absolute level and estimate an attrition rate of almost one-tenth of a second per year for the 100 meters, or 0.35 seconds in a 400m every year!
This is one reason why some masters athletes don’t bother showing up when they reach the tail end of their age group. Sure, injuries, scheduling and financial reasons also factor in the equation, but these statistics show just how difficult it is to compete with athletes even 4 years younger than oneself.
If you take my recent experience at the WMA 2007 Championships, I am 10 months short of turning 45 years old. I ran 11.95 and did not advance to the semi-finals in my age group. I would have advanced, however, if I was in the M45 age group.
But will I be one-tenth slower next year? Not only that, will I have to race Willie Gault?
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Tags: aging, riccione italy, slowing down as we age, sprinting attrition rates, World Masters Athletics Championships
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